Google Maps Future? Prognostication starts now!

I’ve been thinking about what a good job Google has done getting their API out into the hands of the public, and how the development community has really run with it. This is all well and good, and while Google is rolling in captial now, they do need to make this pay. The question is how? MapQuest and TerraServer are not known as being a pot-o-gold, so what does Google have up it’s sleeve?

Being an ad-driven company at this point, it’s relatively safe to speculate that it will continue in the same vein. They even say as much on the API page…

The Maps API is a free beta service, available for any web site that is free to consumers. Google retains the right to put advertising on the map in the future. Please see the terms of use for more information.

So then the question is how will they do on the maps, and when will they implement it?

Prognosticate(How):

I suspect that when they start it, we’ll see additional markers show up on the maps. Since they control the server side, they just need to send along a little more data, and pop! extra markers on your map. Hopefully they will be relevant to the site (should be simple since they already know the context/content of the site).

Since these will be at least somewhat invasive, I see Google giving the site operator the option to “buy your way out” of the ads. Who can say what that will cost? Will it be substantially cheaper than ArcWebServices?

Prognosticate(When):

I think Google is waiting until there are a large number of fairly robust sites/apps built on the API. This gives them momentum and mind-share. It also allows them to work out the details (the use of an API key up front is great – they already have a subscription system built into it!), and suss out what the market/community will accept.

By the time the ads drop, developers have invested time, companies have made decisions to use the service/build on top of it, all the while knowing that the adds “will come”. The exact timimg can have an effect on ESRI. If Google pulls the trigger too soon, or the ads are too invasive, or the price to remove them is too high, the development community may back off. And if ESRI / ESRI consultants can be there with compelling alternatives (clearly they will have more powerful functionality, but can they match the usability?) they may be swayed.

All this leaves me thinking about how to go for “Google-like”, but without Google? I have not had a chance to play with the code behind this, but I suggest checking out the maps page at CivicActions.net for an open source “tile-server” solution along the same lines. Sure you don’t have the entire world, but most clients only care about their data anyhow. And no ads…

So – who knows where this will go. I’d be very interested in other peoples opinions on this though.